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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still